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In this follow-up article, we will walk you through a step-by-step process of how you can develop your own Theory of Change (ToC) diagram for evaluation purposes.

You can also find our Theory of Change template here which you can use to support the development process. However, there is no one right way of developing a ToC.

Some people prefer working backwards from the program purpose, and it often depends on the program and the information that is already available to what method would work best. The method described below is one that I have found particularly useful from past experience.

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When developing a ToC, it is important to keep the following points front of mind: 

• A ToC should be credible. It should be based on the insight and experience from different key stakeholders  

• A ToC should be achievable. You need to have the necessary resources to complete the desired change processes. Setting out to solve world hunger with a small budget isn’t the way to go! 

• A ToC should be supported. All key stakeholders should have some level of involvement in defining a ToC. Key stakeholders also need to agree with the ToC to ensure buy-in and understanding across all levels 

• A ToC should be testable. The diagram and accompanying narrative need to be a complete picture of the program. However, they also need to be clear, concise, and not over-complicate the description of the program’s work. Making sure you have indicators of achievement for each outcome will help you to collect the necessary data to test your ToC 

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How to Host a Theory of Change (ToC) Workshop

Developing a ToC should be a highly collaborative process. The best method I have found to develop a ToC is by holding a 2-hour workshop (which can be broken up into two parts if needed) with key stakeholders. The first step in your process should be to identify and gather all of the relevant stakeholders and agree on a time to come together for the workshop.

As previously mentioned, the ToC needs to be owned and used by stakeholders, so it is crucial that they believe in it and have a clear understanding of how it works. I have held ToC workshops both in-person (my preferred method) and online.

Some useful materials to gather prior to the workshop include:

• If holding the workshop in-person: bring some big pieces of paper or have a whiteboard handy. Make sure you have lots of marker pens and different coloured sticky notes so that everyone can take part in workshopping the ToC 

  *Top tip: We suggest using different coloured sticky notes for each step in the ToC diagram (e.g., blue for activities, yellow for outputs, etc.) 

• If holding the workshop online: there are lots of types of online collaborative software you can use to workshop a ToC. My personal favourite is Miro which allows everyone to participate in adding to the ToC, moving things around, and editing the diagram 

Your main job in the ToC workshop is to act as a facilitator to help the key stakeholders develop the ToC. In this article, we’ve provided a list of steps and some key questions that you can use to facilitate the ToC workshop.

Note that this process is for developing a ToC for evaluating an already established program. For planning and designing a new program, the questions can be reframed slightly to change the tense from “what we’ve done” to “what we’ll do.” 

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Key definitions to display for all key stakeholders throughout the ToC workshop

One last point before we get started; it is essential that you clearly define what a ToC is and is not for all stakeholders before you start to make sure they understand the intent of the workshop. This will make sure that everyone is on the same page and that there is a clear understanding of what the final product will be. 

*Top tip: Make sure you have a note-taker on hand in the workshop to capture all the key details that aren’t listed on the sticky notes 

Activities 

• The actions that will be taken by the program that are expected to contribute to the change. For example, this could include interviews with patients, training of clinicians, etc. 

Outputs 

• The products or the services that the program will create through the activities. For example, certain pieces of new knowledge (e.g., patients’ opinions) or new processes (e.g., a new clinic workflow).  

Outcomes 

• The changes in knowledge (e.g., clinicians have a greater understanding of a condition), attitudes (e.g., patients change their perspectives about exercise), or skills (e.g., MOA’s learn how to use TNA) of the key actors that are expected to lead to a change in their behaviour (e.g., clinicians use their knowledge to support patients, patients exercise 3 times a week, MOA’s use TNA for tracking appointments) as a result of the program. Outcomes are sometimes broken down into intermediate, end of program, and high-level depending on when they are expected to be realized in the program life cycle.  

Impacts 

• The top-level changes that result wholly or in part from the outcomes (e.g., the change process) to which the program contributed to. 

Purpose 

• The overall goal/aim the program aims to contribute to; it explains the program’s reason for existence. 

Impact Pathways 

• The pathways through which the program is expected to contribute to change. These are often actor specific to make them more tangible (e.g., Clinician Capacity Building Pathway, Clinic Workflow Pathway). 

Causal Logic 

• Describes the how and why between each step in a ToC. In the ToC diagram it is often presented using arrows.  

Indicators 

• A marker of accomplishment that can be used to measure the success of a program (e.g., did the program contribute to a certain outcome?).  

Assumptions 

• The factors outside of the program’s control that are necessary to ensure the program’s success. 

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Creating an Agenda for your ToC Workshop

The way I workshop and develop a ToC is not linear. Here is an agenda of what to expect: 

1. Purpose: What was the long-term goal of the program? 

2. Target audiences: Who were the main target audiences of the program? 

3. Activities: What were the program’s main activities and how were they carried out? 

4. Outputs: What outputs did these activities result in? 

5. Outcomes: What were the main outcomes of the program? 

6. Impacts: What impacts did these outcomes lead to and how are they connected to the purpose? 

7. Impact Pathways: What types of impact pathways were implemented? 

8. Indicators: How do we measure the outcomes? 

9. Assumptions: What are the underlying assumptions for each outcome? 

I have also numbered each stage of the workshop process in the following ToC diagram. The steps that should be captured outside of the diagram (e.g., in a ToC tracking table, see part 1; “What is Theory of Change in Evaluation?”) and will be useful for evaluating the program and testing the diagram have also been included below for your reference. 

*Top tip: take a photo of your whiteboard, sticky wall, or online workshop board after the workshop and keep it safe! You’ll need it to create a more consolidated version of the ToC diagram

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Consolidating the Theory of Change (ToC)

The first ToC to come out of the workshop will look very messy, but don’t panic! Your notes will help you to consolidate and make sense of the ToC.

There is no right way to consolidate the ToC and it will take practice, but a useful technique is to think about the different target audiences identified and make sure each step in the change process (e.g., outcomes) is well established; if not, check to see if outcomes can be merged or if any logical steps are missing.

Drafting a supporting narrative is also something that takes practice, but it’s key to focus on identifying the causal logic. You want to clearly explain the theory behind the diagram so that everyone can understand it, even those outside of the program; focus on explaining who is doing what differently and why because of the program and its activities? 

*Top tip: Probe stakeholders during the workshop to identify and determine the causal logic between each step and outcome, and make sure the note-taker writes this down in detail! 

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Validating the Theory of Change (ToC)

Once you have a consolidated ToC and draft narrative, the most important thing is to validate it with key stakeholders. Share both the model and narrative with them, walk them through it, and make sure it makes sense to everyone.

Have a list of questions ready to ask them if anything doesn’t quite make sense to you. Don’t forget to make sure that your ToC is credible, achievable, supported, and testable! 

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Have you worked with ToC before, do you have a different way of developing a diagram, or have questions? Comment on this article or connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter! 

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We get it, Theory of Change (ToC) doesn’t really sound like the most fun, interesting, or appealing evaluation tool. I certainly wasn’t buzzing with excitement when I first heard the phrase ToC! 

If this also sounds like you, then you’ve come to the right place. This article aims to introduce you to ToC and is aimed at those who may have heard of the tool before but aren’t quite sure as to what it is and how it can be useful for evaluation. After putting my preconceptions of the tool to one side and learning more about its uses, I have found that ToC has been one of the most valuable tools to me so far as an evaluator. 

This article is the first part of our discussion on ToC and answers the question of “what is theory of change in evaluation?”

The second part of our discussion will focus on how to develop and use ToC for evaluation. 

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So, what is Theory of Change (ToC)? 

Theory of Change (ToC) explains how a set of activities will solve a problem. It does this by clearly describing the problem and the change you (and the program) intend to create.

Most importantly, ToC depicts change that is not linear. Processes of change actually have multiple feedback loops that need to be understood and described.

In short, ToC is a diagram to describe “if you do this, then these are the intended results.” When we break it down a little more we get … 

Although ToC has similar components to other evaluation tools such as logic models that mainly focus on the what, ToC goes into more detail about the why.

It does this by identifying processes called “causal logic” or “causal mechanisms” which are represented in the diagram using arrows. We will go into further detail about causal logic below.

While logic models also highlight contextual factors and assumptions, they are often focused at a high-level and don’t look at each specific step within the change process (e.g., between each outcome box). This is something that is key to a ToC. 

ToC allows us to map each step towards a long-term goal which provides an explicit and testable diagram of how and why a change is expected to happen in a particular context.

It is not just a list of activities with arrows linking them to their intended outcomes like a logic model, but it explains how these changes will happen and how the program will contribute to this change at each little step in the change process.

You guessed it, ToC creates its own program theory. It also looks at what other external factors outside of the program will affect the desired change. 

ToC can be developed for any level of an intervention – an event, a project, a program, a policy, a strategy, or an organization.

This makes it both useful for program planning and in monitoring and evaluation where it is often captured through a one-page diagram that contains multiple boxes and arrows. This diagram often has a supporting written narrative that explains each step of the theory in more detail to walk the reader through the diagram.

A ToC is a living document; it is not set in stone and should be revisited and revised as the program progresses to make the most of opportunities and address challenges that arise. Depending on the lifespan of the program, a 6-monthly or yearly review of the ToC diagram and narrative might be appropriate. 

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What are the main components of a Theory of Change (ToC)? 

There are several main components of a ToC. Some of these components are included in the ToC diagram itself, while others should be captured in the supporting narrative or an alternate table. This has been explained in further detail below. 

• Activities are the actions that will be taken by the program that are expected to contribute to the change. For example, this could include interviews with patients, training of clinicians, etc. 

• Outputs are the products or the services that the program will create through the activities. For example, certain pieces of new knowledge (e.g., patients’ opinions) or new processes (e.g., a new clinic workflow). 

• Outcomes are the changes in knowledge (e.g., clinicians have greater understanding of a condition), attitudes (e.g., patients change their perspectives about exercise), or skills (e.g., clinicians learn how to use new software) of the key actors that are expected to lead to a change in their behaviour (e.g., clinicians use their knowledge to support patients, patients exercise 3 times a week, MOA’s use TNA for tracking appointments). Outcomes are sometimes broken down into intermediate, end of program, and high-level depending on when they are expected to be realized in the program life cycle. However, there is no right number of outcomes which entirely depends on the program itself and the change process they are describing.  

• Impacts are the top-level changes that result wholly or in part from the outcomes (e.g., the change process) to which the program contributed to. 

• Purpose is the overall goal/aim the program aims to contribute to; it explains the program’s reason for existence. Unlike a Vision Statement which is more high-level and focuses on the what, the program’s purpose focuses on the why. For example, why is your program on the journey it’s on? 

• Impact Pathways are the pathways through which the program is expected to contribute to change. These are often actor specific to make them more tangible (e.g., Clinician Capacity Building Pathway, Clinic Workflow Pathway) 

• Causal Logic describes the how and why between each step in a ToC. In the ToC diagram it is often presented using arrows. More detail about the causal logic is captured within the supporting narrative. 

Main components that need to be captured outside of the TOC diagram: 

• Key Actors are the people who are crucial to the program. Those developing a ToC should be aware of the key actors’ roles within the context of the program, and how the program will work with these key actors to create change. Key actors can be identified using the framing of “who is doing what differently and why as a result of the program?” and captured using a Stakeholder Matrix (our template can be found here).  

• Causal Logic describes the how and why between each step in a ToC. Detail about the causal logic which links each step in the ToC diagram is captured using the descriptive narrative that accompanies the diagram. The narrative walks the reader step-by-step through the diagram. 

• Indicators are a marker of accomplishment that can be used to measure the success of a program (e.g., did the program contribute to a certain outcome?). These play a key role in the evaluation plan and can be captured and listed using the suggested ToC tracking table below.  

• Assumptions are the factors outside of the program’s control that are necessary to ensure the program’s success. This is one of the most valuable parts of the ToC process as stakeholders get to hear each other’s understanding of the goals, challenges, and what is needed in the program’s context for it to succeed. Like indicators, it is very important to list and understand these key assumptions as they relate to each individual outcome. 

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Why should I use a Theory of Change (ToC)? 

ToC can help you to understand why change is expected to occur by altering the way you think about your program from what you are doing to what you want to achieve. The tool can also help programs respond to changes and guide stakeholder engagement, communication, and support decision-making.

By defining long-term goals and then mapping backwards to identify the necessary preconditions, ToC can provide the basis for arguing that a program is making a difference whilst identifying weaknesses in the argument and providing the opportunity to make changes.

It is well suited to complex programs that are influenced by multiple systems and actors due to its fluid, yet comprehensive approach. 

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Why is ToC useful for evaluation? 

• ToC essentially provides a diagram that can be tested by analyzing relevant indicators to see if the program actually contributed to the intended change 

• ToC builds a solid foundation for an impact evaluation by providing a reporting framework and identifying what data needs to be gathered to test the theory 

• A well-developed ToC can help to create better key evaluation questions, identify indicators for monitoring change, and identify gaps in available data 

• This can help to focus new data collection on areas where there are gaps leading to more effective use of evaluation resources 

• By identifying the why and how of a program, ToC can help to reflect on what has worked or not worked to understand the past, identify opportunities for learning, and plan for the future 

However, developing a ToC can be challenging as it involves facilitating collaboration with all key stakeholders, synthesizing a range of views and information sources, as well as obtaining agreement and buy-in from stakeholders. The collaborative aspect of developing a ToC is crucial and will be further discussed in part 2 of our series on ToC. 

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How has Theory of Change (ToC) helped me in my evaluations? 

ToC has played a BIG part in my role as an evaluator so far in helping me to deliver meaningful results to stakeholders. It has also helped me to build an understanding of change processes and increase the capacities of key stakeholders to do the same. 

Collaboratively developing a ToC before the start of a program has supported my clients in identifying how and why the program is expected to lead to the desired change. It has helped my clients to become clearer in their own understanding, highlight gaps they may not have considered, and document their own underlying assumptions. ToC helped my clients to better understand risk and opportunity within their program’s context to ensure success.  

Collaboratively developing a ToC after a program has been launched for evaluation purposes has also benefitted my clients by helping them to understand why they made certain decisions and why they collaborated with certain actors. As well as providing me with a clear evaluation framework, ToC has helped me to provide actionable recommendations and results. Using ToC as an evaluation tool has also helped my clients to learn more about the benefits of having a clear ToC from the program’s start to help them make decisions and guide their program through challenges. 

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Have you worked with ToC before, or have questions? Comment on this article or connect with us on LinkedIn or Twitter! 

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